The study, entitled “The socio-economic impact of climate change in developing countries over the coming decades”, reinforces Africa’s position as the continent most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Published by the Centre for Global Development (CDM), a forum where countries share their experience of economic and social development policies, it predicts that after 2050, Africa will be hard hit by the impact of climate disruption.
While the agricultural sector is already threatened by an increase in extreme weather phenomena, rising temperatures and, above all, changes in rainfall, the study shows that income from crops could fall by a third by 2050. Beyond that date, the study predicts a 7.1% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Africa. “If the threat of climate change is not addressed, the socio-economic problems of developing countries, particularly in Africa, will worsen and erode the development gains of recent decades”, explains Philip Kofi Adom, the author of the study, who is also an economist at the University of Witwatersrand in South Africa.
Improving the financing of adaptation in Africa
By 2050, the socio-economic impact of climate change in Africa would also mean an increase in poverty on the continent of 20 to 30% compared to the current situation. If nothing is done, 50 million Africans would face a lack of water and would have to move to other regions. And 200 million of them could be affected by extreme famine.
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However, the study also offers a message of hope. By limiting the rise in global temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius and by improving the financing of adaptation measures, particularly in terms of food security, it is still possible to limit the devastating impacts of climate change in Africa.
Boris Ngounou